Caucus 4.3.12: Iran - Bluster or Legitimate Threat?

Nine years ago, March 19, the US invaded Iraq under the pretext of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Now we hear saber rattling on Iran under the ruse of their pursuit of nuclear capabilities. 

Where is this chest puffing leading us? What does it say about the Obama administration's foreign policy? Is there a definitive "Obama Doctrine"?

There is a ton of material out there on this subject. I recommend three citations:

"Moving Beyond War." Bill Moyer interview with Andrew Bacevich. Either 53min video or audio can be found here.

"Time to Attack Iran? A Debate." Opposing views on televised debate moderated by Foreign Affairs, here.

"A Middle Course on Iran." To contain Iran, or to preempt? That is, at present, the question, here.

See you on Tuesday. 

Lobbyists, Guns and Money

By PAUL KRUGMAN

Florida’s now-infamous Stand Your Ground law, which lets you shoot someone you consider threatening without facing arrest, let alone prosecution, sounds crazy — and it is. And it’s tempting to dismiss this law as the work of ignorant yahoos. But similar laws have been pushed across the nation, not by ignorant yahoos but by big corporations. 

Specifically, language virtually identical to Florida’s law is featured in a template supplied to legislators in other states by the American Legislative Exchange Council, a corporate-backed organization that has managed to keep a low profile even as it exerts vast influence (only recently, thanks to yeoman work by the Center for Media and Democracy, has a clear picture of ALEC’s activities emerged). And if there is any silver lining to Trayvon Martin’s killing, it is that it might finally place a spotlight on what ALEC is doing to our society — and our democracy.

Full article here.

Moments of Truth - Goldman

Every great once and awhile a time comes when truth sees the light of day: Goldman Sachs.

Derivative Follow-Up

We had yet another thought provoking roundtable. Special thanks to Matt Elley for facilitating.  Below are a few follow-up links that were referenced during the discussion. Enjoy!

On the origins of the mathematical equation that led so many of these derivative instruments to be severely mispriced (or, conversely, the risk severely misjudged), here.

Vanity Fair article on Jon Corzine, the gentle sir who presided over the recent blow up/bankruptcy of MF Global...Corzine previously ran Goldman Sachs and was Governor of New Jersey, here.

Caucus 3.6.12: The Derivative Market & Shadow Banking System

The Derivative Market & Shadow Banking System         

Advocate Perspective:

“Ultimately, derivatives offer organizations the opportunity to break financial risks into smaller components and then to buy and sell those components to best meet specific risk-management objectives. Moreover, under a market-oriented philosophy, derivatives allow for the free trading of individual risk components, thereby improving market efficiency. Using financial derivatives should be considered a part of any business's risk-management strategy to ensure that value-enhancing investment opportunities can be pursued.”

                – Tom Siems, Dallas Federal Reserve Economic & Policy Advisor

Source: http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-283.html

*Note this perspective is from 1997, before the two most significant financial system stresses that have occurred in the 1998 Failure of Long-Term Capital management and the financial crises of 2007-2011.

Critical Perspective:

·         Critic’s commentary on the possibility and implications of our next financial crisis that will likely be related to derivatives: http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/coming-derivatives-crisis-could-destroy-entire-global-financial-system

·         NY Times article on Secretive Banking Elite who rule the trade in derivatives: http://www.cnbc.com/id/40628316/

·         In 1933 the Glass Steagall Act was passed in response to reform needed to avoid another Great Depression. The repeal of provisions of the Glass–Steagall Act by the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act in 1999 effectively removed the separation that previously existed between investment banking which issued securities and commercial banks which made money through deposits. It was the repeal of these prohibitions that was later claimed by many to have contributed to the financial crisis of 2007-11 by allowing depositors' money to flow into risky investments. This has helped to create many large banking institutions that are “too big to fail” and justifications for government bail outs.  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass%E2%80%93Steagall_Act

·         Brooksley Born, the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [CFTC], issued a warning in the late 1990s of the dangers of derivatives in our financial system. Her criticism was suppressed by the financial industry and some of Washington’s top regulators:  http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/view/

·         Federal Reserve Map of the Shadow Banking system: (Only referenced to note the complexity of the system map on page 3) http://www.ny.frb.org/research/staff_reports/sr458.pdf

Some Solutions:

·         Creating a Market Exchange for OTC derivatives. South Korea’s efforts: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-12/south-korea-to-start-otc-derivatives-clearinghoue-to-reduce-global-risks.html

Complex systems are efficient but run with little margin of error. They breakdown less frequently but when they do the fail catastrophically. One framework to improve complex systems is through the application of the Principals of Resilience:  http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/04/15/the_next_big_thing_resilience

Follow-Up: Unexpected Opposition to I-502

Not all are on-board for Initiative 502 to legalize marijuana.  Namely, the business owners that currently sell medical marijuana through dispensaries. Interesting perspective, here.

Caucus 2.7.12: Legalization of Marijuana

For our next Caucus on Tuesday (2.7.12 from 7:30pm to 9:00pm @ Jade Garden) we will discuss the pro's and con's of legalizing Marijuana, or drugs, in general.  Especially relevant as its legalization will be coming up on the Washington State ballot this November.

We will look to discuss the state's current inclination towards criminalization as opposed to a health issue and rehabilitation, and its implications. Materials:

Washington State Initiative, here & here.

 

Pros & Cons, here & here.

Interesting clip of Ron Paul in a recent debate.  How interesting that he would be the one to bring this up in a national debate? 

The Business of Getting High: Documentary film on the history of marijuana/cannabis.

SCOTUS Requires Warrant for GPS Tracking

As a follow up to our conversation earlier this month on police tactics and surveillance, the Supreme Court this morning issued its decision in U.S. v. Jones. The decision was unanimous in that the Court found a warrant must be issued in advance of the police attaching a GPS tracking device to a suspect's vehicle, although the Justices split over the reasoning behind this requirement. Privacy lives to fight another day...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/supreme-court-says-search-warrants-needed-when-police-use-gps-devices-to-track-suspects/2012/01/23/gIQA7wL1KQ_story.html?hpid=z1

The Future of History...

Can liberal democracy survive the demise of the middle class?   From everyone's favorite wonk Diva, Francis Fukuyama, explains himself here.


"Something strange is going on in the world today. The global financial crisis that began in 2008 and the ongoing crisis of the euro are both products of the model of lightly regulated financial capitalism that emerged over the past three decades. Yet despite widespread anger at Wall Street bailouts, there has been no great upsurge of left-wing American populism in response. It is conceivable that the Occupy Wall Street movement will gain traction, but the most dynamic recent populist movement to date has been the right-wing Tea Party, whose main target is the regulatory state that seeks to protect ordinary people from financial speculators. Something similar is true in Europe as well, where the left is anemic and right-wing populist parties are on the move."

America's Unlevel Field

Paul Krugman, America's Unlevel Field:

"Americans are much more likely than citizens of other nations to believe that they live in a meritocracy. But this self-image is a fantasy: as a report in The Times last week pointed out, America actually stands out as the advanced country in which it matters most who your parents were, the country in which those born on one of society’s lower rungs have the least chance of climbing to the top or even to the middle."

Real Talk On Economic Inequity

Amazing times when both Liberals and Conservatives are voicing concern on unprecedented "class inequality," or what Republicans like to frame as decreasing "income mobility," and the ability to achieve the "American Dream."  Both terms describe the same underlying issue of a disappearing middle class.

The Times:
-Harder for Americans to Rise From Lower Rungs

The Post x3:
-The danger in a declining middle class
-No longer the land of opportunity
-Iowa and the future of history

Ever wonder who controls the keys to the internet?

Link:  The Geo-Politics of ICANN vs ITU

The Internet is now the engine of the new global economy. It is a communication infrastructure. Both have been correctly regarded as national security interests of the very highest level of priority. Some of the participants in the ICANN/ITU world are former participants in arms limitation circles. Their mode of thinking is illustrated by the frequent use of phrases such as 'why would we give up...'.

Institutionalized Mass Surveillance - Big Data

Another issue raised at the last Caucus concerned "Institutionalized Mass Surveillance," decreasing expectations of privacy, and how this is changing our understanding of the Fourth Amendment.

In that discussion, Aaron Kleiner brought up the topic of Big Data and the technology that is allowing for even greater capacity to compute all the data that is collected during our day-to-day lives.

Some additional materials:  Thomas Friedman's glass half-full approach on tech and globalization.

In addition, Sean Gourley on the Mathematics of War:  

1.3.12 Caucus Follow-Up

2012 got kicked off in proper fashion.  Our first two-table Caucus!

In the interest of keeping the discussion going (albeit digital), below our two articles that were mentioned in relation to the Caucus topic of "Modern Police Tactics & Militarization."

The first is an Op-Ed written by Kate and published in the Seattle Times on Sunday.

The second examines the controversial "stop-and-frisk" technique used by the NYPD:

Part I   &  Part II

Enjoy!

Modern Police Tactics & Militarization

Caucus Materials: 1.3.12

Alright... 2012 it is. The esteemed Chris Casillas will be moderating the next Caucus, which is set for the first Tuesday of January: 1.3.12 from 7:30pm to 9:00pm @ Jade Garden.

The discussion topic: Modern Police Tactics & Militarization

Chris explains:

"I'd like to break the conversation into two interrelated pieces. I thought I'd pose a few questions associated with each topic to help facilitate the thinking in preparation for our meeting and to guide the start of our discussion.

Topic #1: Police Militarization:

Computers

Here are the materials for next month's caucus.  Thanks to Aaron Kleiner!

Mind bending computer stuff!

Scary Computer Stuff & Political Intrigue

Vanity Fair has great reporting on cyber-attacks and data loss, with a focus on the political elements.  There's a lengthy piece, Enter the Cyber Dragon, or a shorter version, Operation Shady RAT.  Both speak to the same area of activity, so take your pick.

Softball Computer Stuff For People With No Time

• NYT op-ed about new forms of surveillance and ramifications for privacy
• Cyber-censorhip map (a bit "beta"), courtesy of a Yemeni software developer who built a program to circumvent gov't blocks
• Content controls in the Western world?  Getting there.http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/features/2011/09/chinese-hacking-201109

See you Tuesday 10/4, 7:30pm at the Jade Garden!

Anatomy of a Social Movement

EMPOWERMENT  PRACTICE AND  SOCIAL  CHANGE:
THE PLACE FOR NEW SOCIAL MOVEMENT THEORY

UW gives us what we asked for

For decades now we've heard the demand that government needs to be more like business. Can't it be more self-sufficient, more attuned to the bottom line? Well, yes it can. This is what it looks like.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/dannywestneat/2014693677_danny06.html

Liquor sales: business interests wake up to sober truth

Remember last year, when we almost gave the state liquor business away to private industry, for nothing? Guess what? Now the folks who want to privatize the state liquor system are back. And amazingly, they're offering to pay us (USD 400m) hundreds of millions of dollars for our liquor business!

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/dannywestneat/2014608896_danny27.html

Port Commission gets 9% raise; Raises for Port staff capped at 3.5%

These are the kind of stories that detract from meaningful sacrifices from working class state employees:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2014368706_portpay02m.html

The Bargaining Table

US Department of Labor (a.k.a. That Bloated Bureaucracy):

The American collective bargaining system embraces at least three characteristics distinctive to industrial relations in the United States. Perhaps the most significant is that our system of industrial relations is highly decentralized. The prevalence of plant and company negotiations grew out of the patterns of organizations among employers and unions scattered across the country.

http://www.dol.gov/oasam/programs/history/amworkerconclusion.htm

Have Washington state workers given their fair share?

Seattle Times:

As debate over government workers' wages and benefits erupts across the country, some lawmakers here are questioning whether state employees have given enough to help balance the state budget.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2014343172_stateworkers27m.html

Rubicon: A river in Wisconsin

Charles Krauthammer:

In the private sector, the capitalist knows that when he negotiates with the union, if he gives away the store, he loses his shirt. In the public sector, the politicians who approve any deal have none of their own money at stake. On the contrary, the more favorably they dispose of union demands, the more likely they are to be the beneficiary of union largess in the next election. It's the perfect cozy setup.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/24/AR2011022406520.html

Shock Doctrine, U.S.A.

Paul Krugman:

In recent weeks, Madison has been the scene of large demonstrations against the governor’s budget bill, which would deny collective-bargaining rights to public-sector workers. Gov. Scott Walker claims that he needs to pass his bill to deal with the state’s fiscal problems. But his attack on unions has nothing to do with the budget.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/opinion/25krugman.html?ref=paulkrugman

The Wisconsin Uprising

Step one: Create your own budget crisis by giving out tax cuts to the privileged.

Step two: “Solve” your crisis by attacking teachers and other public servants.

http://dissentmagazine.org/atw.php?id=380

Obama budget plan shows interest owed on national debt quadrupling in next decade

Starting in 2014, net interest payments will surpass the amount spent on education, transportation, energy and all other discretionary programs outside defense. In 2018, they will outstrip Medicare spending. Only the amounts spent on defense and Social Security would remain bigger under the president's plan.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/16/AR2011021606897.html?hpid=topnews

Why The Revolution Will Not Be Tweeted

Social media can’t provide what social change has always required.

Read more http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/10/04/101004fa_fact_gladwell#ixzz1DXg6LnVX

Forum on Police Accountability

City Hall forum on Seattle police conduct erupts in anger, mistrust.

How Big Brands Can Help...

The opening salvo into what can build to be a great community.